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Brusque vs Inter De Limeira — Serie C 2025

Brusque
Brusque
Preview
22:30
Inter De Limeira
Inter De Limeira
8/15/2026Serie CSerie C · Round 17
Big match
37%
Inter De Limeira
model favours
35%28%37%

Inter De Limeira score first in only 30% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Brusque35%
×Draw28%
Inter De Limeira37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brusque
1.16
Inter De Limeira
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 7 away

creates per match

Brusque
1.46
Inter De Limeira
1.29

allows per match

Brusque
1.08
Inter De Limeira
0.86

finishing

Brusque+0.00on par
Inter De Limeira+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brusque ↓

Inter De Limeira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Brusque or draw
63%
Brusque or Inter De Limeira
72%
Draw or Inter De Limeira
65%

Winning margin

Brusque wins by 2+
15%
Inter De Limeira wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Brusque 1+ goals
69%
Brusque 2+ goals
32%
Brusque 3+ goals
11%
Inter De Limeira 1+ goals
70%
Inter De Limeira 2+ goals
33%
Inter De Limeira 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Brusque (draw refunded)
49%
Inter De Limeira (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brusque at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 24 matches

Inter De Limeira away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brusque attack 1.46 + Inter De Limeira defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.16

Inter De Limeira attack 1.29 + Brusque defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Brusque scores more
35%
level
28%
Inter De Limeira scores more
37%

Inter De Limeira at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Inter De Limeira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Top-of-the-table clash — Brusque 2 vs Inter De Limeira 1
  • 33% of Brusque’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 20% of Brusque’s goals come in the first 15 minutes
  • Brusque and Inter De Limeira have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Brusque
LWLWL
Limeira
WWDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Brusque host Inter De Limeira

August 15, 2026: Brusque take on Inter De Limeira in Serie C. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.