FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Schalke 04 — Bundesliga 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 6+ matches
FSV Mainz 0552%
FC Schalke 0424%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
FSV Mainz 05 creates 56% more chances
Season form · 29 home / 6 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over56
- Under44
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes57
- No43
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
FSV Mainz 05 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
FSV Mainz 05 at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.37 · 29 matches
FC Schalke 04 away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.90 · 6 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.66 + FC Schalke 04 defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.78
FC Schalke 04 attack 0.91 + FSV Mainz 05 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.14
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 52%?"
FSV Mainz 05 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 52% does not mean "FSV Mainz 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Bayern München
Borussia Dortmund
RB Leipzig
VfB Stuttgart
1899 Hoffenheim
Bayer Leverkusen
SC Freiburg
Eintracht Frankfurt
FC AugsburgFSV Mainz 05
Union Berlin
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Hamburger SV
1. FC Köln
Werder BremenFC Schalke 04
SV Elversberg
SC Paderborn 07If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
FSV Mainz 05 host FC Schalke 04 on Saturday, 23 February 2019 at 14:30. The match is part of the Bundesliga 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Schalke 04
FSV Mainz 05 beat FC Schalke 04 3-0 in Bundesliga on February 23, 2019.
Goals: K. Onisiwo (18', 84'), J. Mateta (73').
FC Schalke 04 controlled possession (60%) and registered 10 shots to 20.
The match was played at Opel Arena in Mainz.