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Bruck/Leitha vs Admira II — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Bruck/Leitha
Bruck/Leitha
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Admira II
Admira II
3/9/2019Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Round 17Parkstadion Bruck (Bruck an der Leitha)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Bruck/Leitha45%
×Draw23%
Admira II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bruck/Leitha
1.80
Admira II
1.48

Bruck/Leitha creates 22% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 41 away

creates per match

Bruck/Leitha
1.75
Admira II
1.17

allows per match

Bruck/Leitha
1.78
Admira II
1.85

finishing

Bruck/Leitha+0.00on par
Admira II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bruck/Leitha ↓

Admira II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Bruck/Leitha or draw
68%
Bruck/Leitha or Admira II
77%
Draw or Admira II
55%

Winning margin

Bruck/Leitha wins by 2+
24%
Admira II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bruck/Leitha 1+ goals
83%
Bruck/Leitha 2+ goals
54%
Bruck/Leitha 3+ goals
27%
Admira II 1+ goals
77%
Admira II 2+ goals
43%
Admira II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Bruck/Leitha (draw refunded)
59%
Admira II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bruck/Leitha at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

Admira II away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.85 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bruck/Leitha attack 1.75 + Admira II defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.80

Admira II attack 1.17 + Bruck/Leitha defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bruck/Leitha scores more
45%
level
23%
Admira II scores more
32%

Bruck/Leitha at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bruck/Leitha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Ost: Bruck/Leitha 1–2 Admira II

Admira II beat Bruck/Leitha 2-1 in Regionalliga - Ost on March 9, 2019.

The match was played at Parkstadion Bruck (Bruck an der Leitha).