Bruck an der Mur 3–0 Liezen: Result & Stats

Bruck an der Mur

FT

3 – 0

Liezen

10/16/2020

Landesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 9Murinselstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Bruck an der Mur61%

×Draw19%

Liezen20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bruck an der MurExpected goals in this matchLiezen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.27

Bruck an der Mur

2.33

Liezen

1.27

Bruck an der Mur creates 83% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 42 away

1.92

creates per match

0.76

1.79

allows per match

2.74

creates per match

Bruck an der Mur

1.92

Liezen

0.76

allows per match

Bruck an der Mur

1.79

Liezen

2.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bruck an der Mur+0.00on par

Liezen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bruck an der Mur ↓

Liezen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Bruck an der Mur or draw

80%

Bruck an der Mur or Liezen

81%

Draw or Liezen

39%

Winning margin

Bruck an der Mur wins by 2+

39%

Liezen wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bruck an der Mur 1+ goals

90%

Bruck an der Mur 2+ goals

67%

Bruck an der Mur 3+ goals

41%

Liezen 1+ goals

72%

Liezen 2+ goals

36%

Liezen 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bruck an der Mur (draw refunded)

75%

Liezen (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bruck an der Mur at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.79 · 73 matches

Liezen away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.74 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bruck an der Mur attack 1.92 + Liezen defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.33

Liezen attack 0.76 + Bruck an der Mur defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Bruck an der Mur scores more

61%

level

19%

Liezen scores more

20%

Bruck an der Mur at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Bruck an der Mur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff