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Brown DE Adrogue vs Dock Sud — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Brown DE Adrogue
Brown DE Adrogue
Preview
20:00
Dock Sud
Dock Sud
10/10/2026Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Round 39Estadio Lorenzo Arandilla
38%
Brown DE Adrogue
model favours
38%30%32%

Brown DE Adrogue score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
64%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Brown DE Adrogue38%
×Draw30%
Dock Sud32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brown DE Adrogue
1.12
Dock Sud
1.01

Brown DE Adrogue creates 11% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 87 away

creates per match

Brown DE Adrogue
1.03
Dock Sud
0.99

allows per match

Brown DE Adrogue
1.03
Dock Sud
1.21

finishing

Brown DE Adrogue+0.00on par
Dock Sud+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brown DE Adrogue ↓

Dock Sud →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Brown DE Adrogue or draw
68%
Brown DE Adrogue or Dock Sud
70%
Draw or Dock Sud
62%

Winning margin

Brown DE Adrogue wins by 2+
16%
Dock Sud wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Brown DE Adrogue 1+ goals
67%
Brown DE Adrogue 2+ goals
31%
Brown DE Adrogue 3+ goals
10%
Dock Sud 1+ goals
64%
Dock Sud 2+ goals
27%
Dock Sud 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Brown DE Adrogue (draw refunded)
54%
Dock Sud (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brown DE Adrogue at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.03 · 37 matches

Dock Sud away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.21 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brown DE Adrogue attack 1.03 + Dock Sud defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.12

Dock Sud attack 0.99 + Brown DE Adrogue defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Brown DE Adrogue scores more
38%
level
30%
Dock Sud scores more
32%

Brown DE Adrogue at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Brown DE Adrogue will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Dock Sud score first in only 25% of matches
  • 73% of Brown DE Adrogue’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • 67% of Dock Sud’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Brown DE Adrogue sit 19, Dock Sud 7 in the table
  • Brown DE Adrogue matches are rarely goalless — only 4.5% end 0-0

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Adrogue
LLDDW
Sud
WDLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Brown DE Adrogue host Dock Sud

October 10, 2026: Brown DE Adrogue take on Dock Sud in Primera B Metropolitana. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Brown DE Adrogue host Dock Sud at Estadio Lorenzo Arandilla.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.