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Brora Rangers vs Forres Mechanics — League #730 2026

Brora Rangers
Brora Rangers
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Forres Mechanics
Forres Mechanics
M. Ewan 35'
J. MacRae 27'
A. Mackinnon 17'
T. Thain 83'
C. Mackenzie 40'
11/4/2023League #730League #730 · Highland League - 13Dudgeon Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Brora Rangers82%
×Draw11%
Forres Mechanics7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brora Rangers
3.40
Forres Mechanics
0.96

Brora Rangers creates 254% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 5 away

creates per match

Brora Rangers
3.00
Forres Mechanics
0.80

allows per match

Brora Rangers
1.12
Forres Mechanics
3.80

finishing

Brora Rangers+0.00on par
Forres Mechanics+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brora Rangers ↓

Forres Mechanics →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Brora Rangers or draw
93%
Brora Rangers or Forres Mechanics
89%
Draw or Forres Mechanics
18%

Winning margin

Brora Rangers wins by 2+
64%
Forres Mechanics wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Brora Rangers 1+ goals
96%
Brora Rangers 2+ goals
84%
Brora Rangers 3+ goals
64%
Forres Mechanics 1+ goals
62%
Forres Mechanics 2+ goals
25%
Forres Mechanics 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Brora Rangers (draw refunded)
92%
Forres Mechanics (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brora Rangers at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.12 · 26 matches

Forres Mechanics away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brora Rangers attack 3.00 + Forres Mechanics defence 3.80 → ÷2 → 3.40

Forres Mechanics attack 0.80 + Brora Rangers defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Brora Rangers scores more
82%
level
11%
Forres Mechanics scores more
7%

Brora Rangers at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Brora Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
A. Mackinnon
27'
J. MacRae
35'
M. Ewan
40'
C. Mackenzie
83'
T. Thain

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #730: Brora Rangers 3–2 Forres Mechanics

Brora Rangers beat Forres Mechanics 3-2 in League #730 on November 4, 2023.

Goals: A. Mackinnon (17'), J. MacRae (27'), M. Ewan (35'), C. Mackenzie (40'), T. Thain (83').

The match was played at Dudgeon Park in Brora.