Progreso 3–1 Deportivo Maldonado: Result & Stats

Progreso

FT

3 – 1

Deportivo Maldonado

11/19/2011

Segunda División · Round 8Parque Abraham Paladino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Progreso53%

×Draw24%

Deportivo Maldonado23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ProgresoExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Maldonado

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.08

Progreso

1.75

Deportivo Maldonado

1.08

Progreso creates 62% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

2.33

creates per match

1.17

1.00

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Progreso

2.33

Deportivo Maldonado

1.17

allows per match

Progreso

1.00

Deportivo Maldonado

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Progreso+0.00on par

Deportivo Maldonado+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progreso ↓

Deportivo Maldonado →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Progreso or draw

77%

Progreso or Deportivo Maldonado

76%

Draw or Deportivo Maldonado

47%

Winning margin

Progreso wins by 2+

29%

Deportivo Maldonado wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Progreso 1+ goals

83%

Progreso 2+ goals

52%

Progreso 3+ goals

25%

Deportivo Maldonado 1+ goals

66%

Deportivo Maldonado 2+ goals

29%

Deportivo Maldonado 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Progreso (draw refunded)

69%

Deportivo Maldonado (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progreso at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Deportivo Maldonado away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progreso attack 2.33 + Deportivo Maldonado defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.75

Deportivo Maldonado attack 1.17 + Progreso defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Progreso scores more

53%

level

24%

Deportivo Maldonado scores more

23%

Progreso at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Progreso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff