Brondby 2–0 FC Nordsjaelland: Result & Stats

Brondby

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

FC Nordsjaelland

A. Slimane 52'

L. Vigen 45'

5/24/2021

Superliga · Championship Round - 10Brøndby Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Brondby48%

×Draw23%

FC Nordsjaelland29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrondbyExpected goals in this matchFC Nordsjaelland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.33

Brondby

1.76

FC Nordsjaelland

1.33

Brondby creates 32% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 26 away

1.90

creates per match

1.42

1.25

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Brondby

1.90

FC Nordsjaelland

1.42

allows per match

Brondby

1.25

FC Nordsjaelland

1.62

-0.07on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brondby-0.07on par

FC Nordsjaelland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brondby ↓

FC Nordsjaelland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Brondby or draw

71%

Brondby or FC Nordsjaelland

77%

Draw or FC Nordsjaelland

52%

Winning margin

Brondby wins by 2+

26%

FC Nordsjaelland wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Brondby 1+ goals

83%

Brondby 2+ goals

52%

Brondby 3+ goals

26%

FC Nordsjaelland 1+ goals

74%

FC Nordsjaelland 2+ goals

38%

FC Nordsjaelland 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Brondby (draw refunded)

62%

FC Nordsjaelland (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brondby at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.25 · 24 matches

FC Nordsjaelland away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.62 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brondby attack 1.90 + FC Nordsjaelland defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.76

FC Nordsjaelland attack 1.42 + Brondby defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Brondby scores more

48%

level

23%

FC Nordsjaelland scores more

29%

Brondby at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Brondby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Lasse Vigen Christensen

Brondby · M

8.2

Match Events

45'

L. Vigen↳ S. Hedlund

52'

A. Slimane↳ K. Mensah

66'

T. Chukwuani← A. Francis

66'

69'

69'

77'

79'

S. Hedlund← O. Fallenius

79'

L. Vigen← T. B. Borkeeiet

80'

M. K. Andersen← I. Sadiq

80'

K. D. Sulemana← S. Adingra

83'

M. Frese← D. Svensson

90'

H. Hermannsson← S. Rosted

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrondbyFC

Overview

53%Possession47%

15Total Shots3

8Corners1

6Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots3

5On Target2

9Off Target1

1Blocked0

10Inside Box1

5Outside Box2

Passing

53%Possession47%

525Total Passes480

448Accurate Passes397

85%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls10

1Yellow Cards0

3Offsides2