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Brondby vs FC Midtjylland — Superliga 2018

Brondby
Brondby
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC Midtjylland
FC Midtjylland
2/18/2024SuperligaSuperliga · Round 18Brøndby Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Brondby40%
×Draw23%
FC Midtjylland38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brondby
1.73
FC Midtjylland
1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

creates per match

Brondby
1.81
FC Midtjylland
1.99

allows per match

Brondby
1.36
FC Midtjylland
1.66

finishing

Brondby-0.12scores less
FC Midtjylland+0.81scores more

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brondby ↓

FC Midtjylland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Brondby or draw
62%
Brondby or FC Midtjylland
77%
Draw or FC Midtjylland
60%

Winning margin

Brondby wins by 2+
20%
FC Midtjylland wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Brondby 1+ goals
82%
Brondby 2+ goals
52%
Brondby 3+ goals
25%
FC Midtjylland 1+ goals
81%
FC Midtjylland 2+ goals
50%
FC Midtjylland 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Brondby (draw refunded)
51%
FC Midtjylland (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brondby at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.36 · 13 matches

FC Midtjylland away — creates 1.99, concedes 1.66 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brondby attack 1.81 + FC Midtjylland defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.73

FC Midtjylland attack 1.99 + Brondby defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Brondby scores more
40%
level
23%
FC Midtjylland scores more
38%

Brondby at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Brondby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Brondby 1–0 FC Midtjylland

Brondby beat FC Midtjylland 1-0 in Superliga on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Brøndby Stadion in Brøndby.