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Brondby vs Aarhus — Superliga 2018

Brondby
Brondby
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Aarhus
Aarhus
11/6/2023SuperligaSuperliga · Round 14Brøndby Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

Brondby42%
×Draw25%
Aarhus33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brondby
1.50
Aarhus
1.29

Brondby creates 16% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 132 away

creates per match

Brondby
1.69
Aarhus
1.33

allows per match

Brondby
1.26
Aarhus
1.30

finishing

Brondby+0.00on par
Aarhus+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brondby ↓

Aarhus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Brondby or draw
67%
Brondby or Aarhus
75%
Draw or Aarhus
58%

Winning margin

Brondby wins by 2+
21%
Aarhus wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Brondby 1+ goals
78%
Brondby 2+ goals
44%
Brondby 3+ goals
19%
Aarhus 1+ goals
72%
Aarhus 2+ goals
37%
Aarhus 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Brondby (draw refunded)
56%
Aarhus (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brondby at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.26 · 133 matches

Aarhus away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.30 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brondby attack 1.69 + Aarhus defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.50

Aarhus attack 1.33 + Brondby defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Brondby scores more
42%
level
25%
Aarhus scores more
33%

Brondby at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Brondby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Brondby 1–1 Aarhus

Brondby and Aarhus drew 1-1 in Superliga on November 6, 2023.

The match was played at Brøndby Stadion in Brøndby.