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Broki vs Transvaal — Eerste Divisie 2019

Broki
Broki
FT
0 – 6
Transvaal
Transvaal
5/19/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 11Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Broki23%
×Draw20%
Transvaal57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Broki
1.38
Transvaal
2.25

Transvaal creates 63% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 60 away

creates per match

Broki
1.56
Transvaal
1.90

allows per match

Broki
2.61
Transvaal
1.20

finishing

Broki+0.00on par
Transvaal+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Broki ↓

Transvaal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Broki or draw
43%
Broki or Transvaal
80%
Draw or Transvaal
77%

Winning margin

Broki wins by 2+
10%
Transvaal wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Broki 1+ goals
75%
Broki 2+ goals
40%
Broki 3+ goals
16%
Transvaal 1+ goals
89%
Transvaal 2+ goals
65%
Transvaal 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Broki (draw refunded)
29%
Transvaal (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Broki at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.61 · 61 matches

Transvaal away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.20 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Broki attack 1.56 + Transvaal defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.38

Transvaal attack 1.90 + Broki defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Broki scores more
23%
level
20%
Transvaal scores more
57%

Transvaal at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Transvaal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Broki vs Transvaal

Transvaal beat Broki 6-0 in Eerste Divisie on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.