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Broki vs Robin Hood — Eerste Divisie 2019

Broki
Broki
FT
0 – 6
Robin Hood
Robin Hood
4/2/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 11Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Broki14%
×Draw16%
Robin Hood70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Broki
1.23
Robin Hood
2.83

Robin Hood creates 130% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 61 away

creates per match

Broki
1.56
Robin Hood
3.05

allows per match

Broki
2.61
Robin Hood
0.90

finishing

Broki+0.00on par
Robin Hood+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Broki ↓

Robin Hood →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Broki or draw
30%
Broki or Robin Hood
84%
Draw or Robin Hood
86%

Winning margin

Broki wins by 2+
5%
Robin Hood wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

Broki 1+ goals
71%
Broki 2+ goals
35%
Broki 3+ goals
13%
Robin Hood 1+ goals
94%
Robin Hood 2+ goals
77%
Robin Hood 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

Broki (draw refunded)
17%
Robin Hood (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Broki at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.61 · 61 matches

Robin Hood away — creates 3.05, concedes 0.90 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Broki attack 1.56 + Robin Hood defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.23

Robin Hood attack 3.05 + Broki defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Broki scores more
14%
level
16%
Robin Hood scores more
70%

Robin Hood at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Robin Hood will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Broki 0–6 Robin Hood

Robin Hood beat Broki 6-0 in Eerste Divisie on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.