Broadmeadow Magic 3–1 Edgeworth Eagles

Broadmeadow Magic

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Edgeworth Eagles

3/17/2024

Northern NSW NPL · Round 4Wanderers Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Broadmeadow Magic50%

×Draw21%

Edgeworth Eagles28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Broadmeadow MagicExpected goals in this matchEdgeworth Eagles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.54

Broadmeadow Magic

2.10

Edgeworth Eagles

1.54

Broadmeadow Magic creates 36% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 80 away

2.72

creates per match

2.02

1.05

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Broadmeadow Magic

2.72

Edgeworth Eagles

2.02

allows per match

Broadmeadow Magic

1.05

Edgeworth Eagles

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Broadmeadow Magic+0.00on par

Edgeworth Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Broadmeadow Magic ↓

Edgeworth Eagles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Broadmeadow Magic or draw

72%

Broadmeadow Magic or Edgeworth Eagles

79%

Draw or Edgeworth Eagles

50%

Winning margin

Broadmeadow Magic wins by 2+

30%

Edgeworth Eagles wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Broadmeadow Magic 1+ goals

88%

Broadmeadow Magic 2+ goals

62%

Broadmeadow Magic 3+ goals

35%

Edgeworth Eagles 1+ goals

79%

Edgeworth Eagles 2+ goals

45%

Edgeworth Eagles 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Broadmeadow Magic (draw refunded)

64%

Edgeworth Eagles (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Broadmeadow Magic at home — creates 2.72, concedes 1.05 · 86 matches

Edgeworth Eagles away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.49 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Broadmeadow Magic attack 2.72 + Edgeworth Eagles defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 2.10

Edgeworth Eagles attack 2.02 + Broadmeadow Magic defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Broadmeadow Magic scores more

50%

level

21%

Edgeworth Eagles scores more

28%

Broadmeadow Magic at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Broadmeadow Magic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff