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Brittons Hill vs Weymouth Wales — Premier League 2019

Brittons Hill
Brittons Hill
FT
0 – 0
Weymouth Wales
Weymouth Wales
2/16/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Brittons Hill26%
×Draw21%
Weymouth Wales52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brittons Hill
1.44
Weymouth Wales
2.09

Weymouth Wales creates 45% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 42 away

creates per match

Brittons Hill
2.13
Weymouth Wales
3.05

allows per match

Brittons Hill
1.13
Weymouth Wales
0.76

finishing

Brittons Hill+0.00on par
Weymouth Wales+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brittons Hill ↓

Weymouth Wales →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Brittons Hill or draw
48%
Brittons Hill or Weymouth Wales
79%
Draw or Weymouth Wales
74%

Winning margin

Brittons Hill wins by 2+
12%
Weymouth Wales wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Brittons Hill 1+ goals
76%
Brittons Hill 2+ goals
42%
Brittons Hill 3+ goals
18%
Weymouth Wales 1+ goals
88%
Weymouth Wales 2+ goals
62%
Weymouth Wales 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Brittons Hill (draw refunded)
34%
Weymouth Wales (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brittons Hill at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.13 · 48 matches

Weymouth Wales away — creates 3.05, concedes 0.76 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brittons Hill attack 2.13 + Weymouth Wales defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.44

Weymouth Wales attack 3.05 + Brittons Hill defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Brittons Hill scores more
26%
level
21%
Weymouth Wales scores more
52%

Weymouth Wales at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Weymouth Wales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brittons Hill vs Weymouth Wales

Brittons Hill and Weymouth Wales drew 0-0 in Premier League on February 16, 2020.

The match was played at Wildey Turf in Bridgetown.