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Britannia vs RCA — Division di Honor 2019

Britannia
Britannia
FT
0 – 1
RCA
RCA
4/20/2024Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Play-offs Kaya 6 - 8Compleho Deportivo Frans Figaroa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Britannia32%
×Draw23%
RCA45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Britannia
1.50
RCA
1.83

RCA creates 22% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 68 away

creates per match

Britannia
2.05
RCA
2.50

allows per match

Britannia
1.16
RCA
0.96

finishing

Britannia+0.00on par
RCA+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Britannia ↓

RCA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Britannia or draw
55%
Britannia or RCA
77%
Draw or RCA
68%

Winning margin

Britannia wins by 2+
15%
RCA wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Britannia 1+ goals
78%
Britannia 2+ goals
44%
Britannia 3+ goals
19%
RCA 1+ goals
84%
RCA 2+ goals
54%
RCA 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Britannia (draw refunded)
41%
RCA (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Britannia at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.16 · 63 matches

RCA away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.96 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Britannia attack 2.05 + RCA defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.50

RCA attack 2.50 + Britannia defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Britannia scores more
32%
level
23%
RCA scores more
45%

RCA at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "RCA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Britannia vs RCA

RCA beat Britannia 1-0 in Division di Honor on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Compleho Deportivo Frans Figaroa in Noord.