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Bristol Rovers vs York — League Two 2018

Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
Preview
15:00
York
York
3/6/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 34Memorial Stadium
Big match
45%
Bristol Rovers
model favours
45%26%29%

York have scored in 36 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Bristol Rovers45%
×Draw26%
York29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol Rovers
1.50
York
1.15

Bristol Rovers creates 30% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 15 away

creates per match

Bristol Rovers
1.61
York
1.13

allows per match

Bristol Rovers
1.18
York
1.40

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par
York+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

York →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw
71%
Bristol Rovers or York
74%
Draw or York
55%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
22%
York wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
78%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
44%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
19%
York 1+ goals
68%
York 2+ goals
32%
York 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
61%
York (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.18 · 57 matches

York away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.61 + York defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.50

York attack 1.13 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more
45%
level
26%
York scores more
29%

Bristol Rovers at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both sides lean high-scoring (73% and 83% over 2.5)
  • 83% of York’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Bristol Rovers score first in only 27% of matches
  • Both teams score in 82% of Bristol Rovers’s matches
  • When York score first, they win 83% of the time
  • 73% of Bristol Rovers’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Rovers
DDLW
York
LLWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bristol Rovers face York (League Two)

League Two returns with Bristol Rovers hosting York. Match starts March 6, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Bristol Rovers host York at Memorial Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.