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Bristol Rovers vs Port Vale — League Two 2018

Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Port Vale
Port Vale
12/7/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 20Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Bristol Rovers42%
×Draw27%
Port Vale31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol Rovers
1.34
Port Vale
1.10

Bristol Rovers creates 22% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 118 away

creates per match

Bristol Rovers
1.51
Port Vale
1.16

allows per match

Bristol Rovers
1.04
Port Vale
1.17

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw
69%
Bristol Rovers or Port Vale
73%
Draw or Port Vale
58%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
19%
Port Vale wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
74%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
39%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
15%
Port Vale 1+ goals
67%
Port Vale 2+ goals
30%
Port Vale 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
58%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.04 · 47 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.17 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.51 + Port Vale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.34

Port Vale attack 1.16 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more
42%
level
27%
Port Vale scores more
31%

Bristol Rovers at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Bristol Rovers 1–2 Port Vale

Port Vale beat Bristol Rovers 2-1 in League Two on December 7, 2021.

The match was played at Memorial Stadium in Bristol, Gloucestershire.