Bristol Rovers 0–1 Charlton: Result & Stats

Bristol Rovers

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Charlton

J. Forster-Caskey 64'

1/16/2021

League One · Round 24Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 133+ matches

Bristol Rovers35%

×Draw27%

Charlton38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol RoversExpected goals in this matchCharlton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.28

Bristol Rovers

1.22

Charlton

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 133 home / 143 away

1.20

creates per match

1.22

1.34

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Bristol Rovers

1.20

Charlton

1.22

allows per match

Bristol Rovers

1.34

Charlton

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Charlton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Charlton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw

62%

Bristol Rovers or Charlton

73%

Draw or Charlton

65%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

15%

Charlton wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

70%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

34%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

12%

Charlton 1+ goals

72%

Charlton 2+ goals

37%

Charlton 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

48%

Charlton (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.34 · 133 matches

Charlton away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.24 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.20 + Charlton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.22

Charlton attack 1.22 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more

35%

level

27%

Charlton scores more

38%

Charlton at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Forster-Caskey

Charlton · M

7.7

Match Events

58'

61'

64'

69'

69'

P. Smyth← J. Williams

70'

R. Schwartz← C. Washington

74'

Albie Morgan

76'

J. Barrett← L. McCormick

85'

85'

86'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolCharlton

Overview

55%Possession45%

10Total Shots13

2Corners8

13Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots13

2On Target3

5Off Target6

3Blocked4

8Inside Box10

2Outside Box3

Passing

55%Possession45%

442Total Passes343

334Accurate Passes242

76%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls14

0Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides4

Match Recap: Bristol Rovers vs Charlton

Charlton beat Bristol Rovers 1-0 in League One on January 16, 2021.

Goals: J. Forster-Caskey (64').

Bristol Rovers controlled possession (55%) and registered 10 shots to 13.

The match was played at Memorial Stadium in Bristol, Gloucestershire.

Bristol Rovers vs Charlton — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Bristol Rovers vs Charlton