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Bristol City vs Wolves — Championship 2018

Bristol City
Bristol City
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 4
Wolves
Wolves
12/1/2012ChampionshipChampionship · Round 20Ashton Gate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Bristol City34%
×Draw26%
Wolves40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol City
1.25
Wolves
1.40

Wolves creates 12% more chances

Season form · 191 home / 29 away

creates per match

Bristol City
1.28
Wolves
1.59

allows per match

Bristol City
1.20
Wolves
1.21

finishing

Bristol City+0.00on par
Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw
60%
Bristol City or Wolves
74%
Draw or Wolves
66%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+
14%
Wolves wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals
71%
Bristol City 2+ goals
36%
Bristol City 3+ goals
13%
Wolves 1+ goals
75%
Wolves 2+ goals
41%
Wolves 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)
45%
Wolves (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.20 · 191 matches

Wolves away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.21 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.28 + Wolves defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Wolves attack 1.59 + Bristol City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bristol City scores more
34%
level
26%
Wolves scores more
40%

Wolves at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Bristol City 1–4 Wolves

Wolves beat Bristol City 4-1 in Championship on December 1, 2012.

The match was played at Ashton Gate Stadium.