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Bristol City vs Watford — Championship 2018

Bristol City
Bristol City
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Watford
Watford
11/25/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 13Ashton Gate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 60+ matches

Bristol City42%
×Draw27%
Watford31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol City
1.33
Watford
1.10

Bristol City creates 21% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 60 away

creates per match

Bristol City
1.29
Watford
1.01

allows per match

Bristol City
1.19
Watford
1.38

finishing

Bristol City+0.15scores more
Watford-0.01on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Watford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw
69%
Bristol City or Watford
73%
Draw or Watford
58%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+
19%
Watford wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals
74%
Bristol City 2+ goals
38%
Bristol City 3+ goals
15%
Watford 1+ goals
67%
Watford 2+ goals
30%
Watford 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)
58%
Watford (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.19 · 63 matches

Watford away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.38 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.29 + Watford defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.33

Watford attack 1.01 + Bristol City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bristol City scores more
42%
level
27%
Watford scores more
31%

Bristol City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
B. FosterWatfordWatford · G
7.5

Match Events

66'
T. Deeney← A. Gray
78'
C. Martin← F. Diedhiou
82'
W. Troost-Ekong← J. Ngakia
87'
N. Wells← A. Semenyo
88'
S. Perica← João Pedro

Possession

36%Bristol

Shots

9Bristol

Pass accuracy

47%Bristol

Statistics

BristolWatford
Overview
36%Possession64%
9Total Shots7
5Corners8
15Fouls10
Shots
9Total Shots7
2On Target1
5Off Target3
2Blocked3
7Inside Box4
2Outside Box3
Passing
36%Possession64%
307Total Passes548
219Accurate Passes434
71%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
15Fouls10

Championship: Bristol City 0–0 Watford

Bristol City and Watford drew 0-0 in Championship on November 25, 2020.

Watford controlled possession (64%) and registered 7 shots to 9.

The match was played at Ashton Gate in Bristol.