Bristol City 1–0 Reading: Result & Stats

Bristol City

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Reading

F. Diedhiou 12'

10/5/2019

Championship · Round 11Ashton Gate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Bristol City44%

×Draw27%

Reading29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol CityExpected goals in this matchReading

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.09

Bristol City

1.39

Reading

1.09

Bristol City creates 28% more chances

Season form · 191 home / 112 away

1.28

creates per match

0.99

1.20

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Bristol City

1.28

Reading

0.99

allows per match

Bristol City

1.20

Reading

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bristol City+0.00on par

Reading+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Reading →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw

71%

Bristol City or Reading

73%

Draw or Reading

56%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+

21%

Reading wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals

75%

Bristol City 2+ goals

40%

Bristol City 3+ goals

16%

Reading 1+ goals

66%

Reading 2+ goals

30%

Reading 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)

60%

Reading (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.20 · 191 matches

Reading away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.49 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.28 + Reading defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.39

Reading attack 0.99 + Bristol City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bristol City scores more

44%

level

27%

Reading scores more

29%

Bristol City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

A. Williams

Bristol City · D

7.6

Match Events

12'

F. Diedhiou↳ N. Eliasson

18'

62'

65'

72'

72'

A. Semenyo← F. Diedhiou

74'

Andy Rinomhota

74'

J. Barrett← Pelé

81'

Lucas João← M. Morrison

85'

K. Palmer← C. ODowda

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolReading

Overview

53%Possession47%

15Total Shots16

3Corners5

14Fouls9

Shots

15Total Shots16

3On Target3

3Off Target5

9Blocked8

6Inside Box11

9Outside Box5

Passing

53%Possession47%

489Total Passes435

396Accurate Passes338

81%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls9

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1