Bristol City 0–1 Middlesbrough: Result & Stats

Bristol City

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Middlesbrough

G. Saville 73'

10/20/2020

Championship · Round 6Ashton Gate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 63+ matches

Bristol City36%

×Draw27%

Middlesbrough37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol CityExpected goals in this matchMiddlesbrough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.29

Bristol City

1.27

Middlesbrough

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 65 away

1.29

creates per match

1.39

1.19

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Bristol City

1.29

Middlesbrough

1.39

allows per match

Bristol City

1.19

Middlesbrough

1.24

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

Bristol City+0.15scores more

Middlesbrough+0.16scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Middlesbrough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw

63%

Bristol City or Middlesbrough

73%

Draw or Middlesbrough

64%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+

16%

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals

72%

Bristol City 2+ goals

36%

Bristol City 3+ goals

14%

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

72%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

37%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)

49%

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.19 · 63 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.24 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.29 + Middlesbrough defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Middlesbrough attack 1.39 + Bristol City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bristol City scores more

36%

level

27%

Middlesbrough scores more

37%

Middlesbrough at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

P. McNair

Middlesbrough · D

7.7

Match Events

58'

T. Kalas← A. Mawson

67'

Dael Fry

70'

F. Diedhiou← C. Martin

71'

A. Semenyo← N. Wells

73'

G. Saville

74'

M. Tavernier← D. Spence

78'

M. Browne← P. Roberts

90'

Marcus Bettinelli

90+2'

N. Wood-Gordon← C. Akpom

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolMiddlesbrough

Overview

56%Possession44%

7Total Shots9

1Corners4

9Fouls7

Shots

7Total Shots9

0On Target1

5Off Target4

2Blocked4

4Inside Box6

3Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

412Total Passes314

280Accurate Passes193

68%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

9Fouls7

0Yellow Cards2

0Offsides3