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Bristol City vs Middlesbrough — Championship 2018

Bristol City
Bristol City
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
B. Assombalonga 32'
M. Braithwaite 13'
8/18/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 3Ashton Gate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 63+ matches

Bristol City36%
×Draw27%
Middlesbrough37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol City
1.27
Middlesbrough
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 65 away

creates per match

Bristol City
1.29
Middlesbrough
1.39

allows per match

Bristol City
1.19
Middlesbrough
1.24

finishing

Bristol City+0.15scores more
Middlesbrough+0.16scores more

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Middlesbrough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw
63%
Bristol City or Middlesbrough
73%
Draw or Middlesbrough
64%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+
16%
Middlesbrough wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals
72%
Bristol City 2+ goals
36%
Bristol City 3+ goals
14%
Middlesbrough 1+ goals
72%
Middlesbrough 2+ goals
37%
Middlesbrough 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)
49%
Middlesbrough (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.19 · 63 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.24 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.29 + Middlesbrough defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Middlesbrough attack 1.39 + Bristol City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bristol City scores more
36%
level
27%
Middlesbrough scores more
37%

Middlesbrough at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
S. DowningMiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough · F
7.8

Match Events

13'
M. Braithwaite
28'
Dael Fry
32'
B. Assombalonga↳ S. Downing
50'
George Friend
69'
M. Taylor← K. Smith
77'
J. Dasilva← J. Hunt
77'
C. O'Dowda← J. Paterson
84'
Matty Taylor
87'
M. Tavernier← M. Braithwaite
89'
A. Fletcher← B. Assombalonga
90+3'
P. McNair← S. Downing

Possession

67%Bristol

Shots

18Bristol

Pass accuracy

57%Bristol

Statistics

BristolMiddlesbrough
Overview
67%Possession33%
18Total Shots13
4Corners4
9Fouls11
Shots
18Total Shots13
4On Target3
9Off Target8
5Blocked2
11Inside Box6
7Outside Box7
Passing
67%Possession33%
533Total Passes259
418Accurate Passes154
78%Pass Accuracy59%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls11
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
3Offsides2

Championship: Bristol City 0–2 Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough beat Bristol City 2-0 in Championship on August 18, 2018.

Goals: M. Braithwaite (13'), B. Assombalonga (32').

Bristol City controlled possession (67%) and registered 18 shots to 13.

The match was played at Ashton Gate Stadium in Bristol.