Bristol City 1–2 Birmingham: Result & Stats

Bristol City

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Birmingham

A. Scott 48'

N. Gordon 13'

T. Chong 2'

3/5/2022

Championship · Round 36Ashton Gate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Bristol City43%

×Draw28%

Birmingham30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol CityExpected goals in this matchBirmingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.06

Bristol City

1.32

Birmingham

1.06

Bristol City creates 25% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 34 away

1.29

creates per match

0.94

1.19

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Bristol City

1.29

Birmingham

0.94

allows per match

Bristol City

1.19

Birmingham

1.35

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Bristol City+0.15scores more

Birmingham-0.23scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Birmingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw

70%

Bristol City or Birmingham

72%

Draw or Birmingham

57%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+

20%

Birmingham wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals

73%

Bristol City 2+ goals

38%

Bristol City 3+ goals

15%

Birmingham 1+ goals

65%

Birmingham 2+ goals

29%

Birmingham 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)

59%

Birmingham (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.19 · 63 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.29 + Birmingham defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.32

Birmingham attack 0.94 + Bristol City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bristol City scores more

43%

level

28%

Birmingham scores more

30%

Bristol City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

36

A. Scott

Bristol City · M

7.9

Match Events

2'

13'

31'

46'

46'

48'

71'

86'

86'

S. Hogan← O. Hernández

90+3'

Gary Gardner

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolBirmingham

Overview

57%Possession43%

11Total Shots13

4Corners5

6Fouls8

Shots

11Total Shots13

4On Target6

3Off Target5

4Blocked2

10Inside Box5

1Outside Box8

Passing

57%Possession43%

453Total Passes347

335Accurate Passes229

74%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

6Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

8Offsides1