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Brisbane Strikers vs Southside Eagles — Queensland Premier League 2026

Brisbane Strikers
Brisbane Strikers
FT
1 – 0
Southside Eagles
Southside Eagles
4/9/2022Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 6Perry Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Brisbane Strikers61%
×Draw20%
Southside Eagles19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brisbane Strikers
2.27
Southside Eagles
1.19

Brisbane Strikers creates 91% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 53 away

creates per match

Brisbane Strikers
2.33
Southside Eagles
1.26

allows per match

Brisbane Strikers
1.12
Southside Eagles
2.21

finishing

Brisbane Strikers+0.00on par
Southside Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brisbane Strikers ↓

Southside Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Brisbane Strikers or draw
81%
Brisbane Strikers or Southside Eagles
80%
Draw or Southside Eagles
39%

Winning margin

Brisbane Strikers wins by 2+
39%
Southside Eagles wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Brisbane Strikers 1+ goals
90%
Brisbane Strikers 2+ goals
66%
Brisbane Strikers 3+ goals
39%
Southside Eagles 1+ goals
70%
Southside Eagles 2+ goals
33%
Southside Eagles 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Brisbane Strikers (draw refunded)
76%
Southside Eagles (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brisbane Strikers at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.12 · 52 matches

Southside Eagles away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.21 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brisbane Strikers attack 2.33 + Southside Eagles defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.27

Southside Eagles attack 1.26 + Brisbane Strikers defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Brisbane Strikers scores more
61%
level
20%
Southside Eagles scores more
19%

Brisbane Strikers at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Brisbane Strikers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland Premier League: Brisbane Strikers 1–0 Southside Eagles

Brisbane Strikers beat Southside Eagles 1-0 in Queensland Premier League on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Perry Park in Brisbane.