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Brisbane Roar vs Western Sydney Wanderers — A-League 2018

Brisbane Roar
Brisbane Roar
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Western Sydney Wanderers
Western Sydney Wanderers
3/6/2020A-LeagueA-League · Round 22Suncorp Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Brisbane Roar38%
×Draw24%
Western Sydney Wanderers38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brisbane Roar
1.54
Western Sydney Wanderers
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 107 home / 105 away

creates per match

Brisbane Roar
1.30
Western Sydney Wanderers
1.51

allows per match

Brisbane Roar
1.52
Western Sydney Wanderers
1.77

finishing

Brisbane Roar+0.00on par
Western Sydney Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brisbane Roar ↓

Western Sydney Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Brisbane Roar or draw
62%
Brisbane Roar or Western Sydney Wanderers
76%
Draw or Western Sydney Wanderers
62%

Winning margin

Brisbane Roar wins by 2+
19%
Western Sydney Wanderers wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Brisbane Roar 1+ goals
79%
Brisbane Roar 2+ goals
45%
Brisbane Roar 3+ goals
20%
Western Sydney Wanderers 1+ goals
78%
Western Sydney Wanderers 2+ goals
45%
Western Sydney Wanderers 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Brisbane Roar (draw refunded)
51%
Western Sydney Wanderers (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brisbane Roar at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.52 · 107 matches

Western Sydney Wanderers away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.77 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brisbane Roar attack 1.30 + Western Sydney Wanderers defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.54

Western Sydney Wanderers attack 1.51 + Brisbane Roar defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Brisbane Roar scores more
38%
level
24%
Western Sydney Wanderers scores more
38%

Brisbane Roar at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Brisbane Roar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brisbane Roar vs Western Sydney Wanderers

Brisbane Roar beat Western Sydney Wanderers 3-1 in A-League on March 6, 2020.

The match was played at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane.