Brisbane Roar 3–1 Sydney: Result & Stats | A-League

Brisbane Roar

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Sydney

5/10/2022

A-League · Round 25Moreton Daily Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Brisbane Roar33%

×Draw25%

Sydney42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brisbane RoarExpected goals in this matchSydney

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.49

Brisbane Roar

1.30

Sydney

1.49

Sydney creates 15% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 112 away

1.30

creates per match

1.46

1.52

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Brisbane Roar

1.30

Sydney

1.46

allows per match

Brisbane Roar

1.52

Sydney

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brisbane Roar+0.00on par

Sydney+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brisbane Roar ↓

Sydney →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Brisbane Roar or draw

58%

Brisbane Roar or Sydney

75%

Draw or Sydney

67%

Winning margin

Brisbane Roar wins by 2+

14%

Sydney wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Brisbane Roar 1+ goals

73%

Brisbane Roar 2+ goals

37%

Brisbane Roar 3+ goals

14%

Sydney 1+ goals

77%

Sydney 2+ goals

44%

Sydney 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Brisbane Roar (draw refunded)

44%

Sydney (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brisbane Roar at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.52 · 107 matches

Sydney away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.30 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brisbane Roar attack 1.30 + Sydney defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.30

Sydney attack 1.46 + Brisbane Roar defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Brisbane Roar scores more

33%

level

25%

Sydney scores more

42%

Sydney at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sydney will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff