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Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne Victory — A-League 2018

Brisbane Roar
Brisbane Roar
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Melbourne Victory
Melbourne Victory
10/25/2019A-LeagueA-League · Round 3Suncorp Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Brisbane Roar36%
×Draw25%
Melbourne Victory39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brisbane Roar
1.37
Melbourne Victory
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 107 home / 109 away

creates per match

Brisbane Roar
1.30
Melbourne Victory
1.36

allows per match

Brisbane Roar
1.52
Melbourne Victory
1.44

finishing

Brisbane Roar+0.00on par
Melbourne Victory+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brisbane Roar ↓

Melbourne Victory →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Brisbane Roar or draw
61%
Brisbane Roar or Melbourne Victory
75%
Draw or Melbourne Victory
64%

Winning margin

Brisbane Roar wins by 2+
16%
Melbourne Victory wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Brisbane Roar 1+ goals
75%
Brisbane Roar 2+ goals
40%
Brisbane Roar 3+ goals
16%
Melbourne Victory 1+ goals
76%
Melbourne Victory 2+ goals
42%
Melbourne Victory 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Brisbane Roar (draw refunded)
48%
Melbourne Victory (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brisbane Roar at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.52 · 107 matches

Melbourne Victory away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.44 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brisbane Roar attack 1.30 + Melbourne Victory defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.37

Melbourne Victory attack 1.36 + Brisbane Roar defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Brisbane Roar scores more
36%
level
25%
Melbourne Victory scores more
39%

Melbourne Victory at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Melbourne Victory will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne Victory

Melbourne Victory beat Brisbane Roar 1-0 in A-League on October 25, 2019.

The match was played at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane.