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Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne City — A-League 2018

Brisbane Roar
Brisbane Roar
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Melbourne City
Melbourne City
12/6/2024A-LeagueA-League · Round 7Suncorp Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Brisbane Roar34%
×Draw25%
Melbourne City41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brisbane Roar
1.38
Melbourne City
1.54

Melbourne City creates 12% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 108 away

creates per match

Brisbane Roar
1.30
Melbourne City
1.56

allows per match

Brisbane Roar
1.52
Melbourne City
1.45

finishing

Brisbane Roar+0.00on par
Melbourne City+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brisbane Roar ↓

Melbourne City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Brisbane Roar or draw
59%
Brisbane Roar or Melbourne City
75%
Draw or Melbourne City
66%

Winning margin

Brisbane Roar wins by 2+
15%
Melbourne City wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Brisbane Roar 1+ goals
75%
Brisbane Roar 2+ goals
40%
Brisbane Roar 3+ goals
16%
Melbourne City 1+ goals
79%
Melbourne City 2+ goals
45%
Melbourne City 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Brisbane Roar (draw refunded)
45%
Melbourne City (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brisbane Roar at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.52 · 107 matches

Melbourne City away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.45 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brisbane Roar attack 1.30 + Melbourne City defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.38

Melbourne City attack 1.56 + Brisbane Roar defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Brisbane Roar scores more
34%
level
25%
Melbourne City scores more
41%

Melbourne City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Melbourne City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne City

Melbourne City beat Brisbane Roar 4-1 in A-League on December 6, 2024.

The match was played at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane.