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Brisbane Roar vs Central Coast Mariners — A-League 2018

Brisbane Roar
Brisbane Roar
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Central Coast Mariners
Central Coast Mariners
2/10/2023A-LeagueA-League · Round 16Kayo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Brisbane Roar38%
×Draw25%
Central Coast Mariners37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brisbane Roar
1.48
Central Coast Mariners
1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 107 home / 109 away

creates per match

Brisbane Roar
1.30
Central Coast Mariners
1.42

allows per match

Brisbane Roar
1.52
Central Coast Mariners
1.65

finishing

Brisbane Roar+0.00on par
Central Coast Mariners+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brisbane Roar ↓

Central Coast Mariners →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Brisbane Roar or draw
63%
Brisbane Roar or Central Coast Mariners
75%
Draw or Central Coast Mariners
62%

Winning margin

Brisbane Roar wins by 2+
18%
Central Coast Mariners wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Brisbane Roar 1+ goals
77%
Brisbane Roar 2+ goals
43%
Brisbane Roar 3+ goals
19%
Central Coast Mariners 1+ goals
77%
Central Coast Mariners 2+ goals
43%
Central Coast Mariners 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Brisbane Roar (draw refunded)
50%
Central Coast Mariners (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brisbane Roar at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.52 · 107 matches

Central Coast Mariners away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.65 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brisbane Roar attack 1.30 + Central Coast Mariners defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.48

Central Coast Mariners attack 1.42 + Brisbane Roar defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Brisbane Roar scores more
38%
level
25%
Central Coast Mariners scores more
37%

Brisbane Roar at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Brisbane Roar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brisbane Roar vs Central Coast Mariners

Central Coast Mariners beat Brisbane Roar 2-1 in A-League on February 10, 2023.

The match was played at Kayo Stadium in Brisbane.