Brisbane Roar FC 2–2 Western Sydney: Result & Stats

Brisbane Roar FC

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Western Sydney

1/25/2019

A-League · Round 16Suncorp Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Brisbane Roar FC38%

×Draw24%

Western Sydney38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brisbane Roar FCExpected goals in this matchWestern Sydney

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.52

Brisbane Roar FC

1.54

Western Sydney

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 107 home / 105 away

1.30

creates per match

1.51

1.52

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Brisbane Roar FC

1.30

Western Sydney

1.51

allows per match

Brisbane Roar FC

1.52

Western Sydney

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brisbane Roar FC+0.00on par

Western Sydney+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brisbane Roar FC ↓

Western Sydney →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Brisbane Roar FC or draw

62%

Brisbane Roar FC or Western Sydney

76%

Draw or Western Sydney

62%

Winning margin

Brisbane Roar FC wins by 2+

19%

Western Sydney wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Brisbane Roar FC 1+ goals

79%

Brisbane Roar FC 2+ goals

45%

Brisbane Roar FC 3+ goals

20%

Western Sydney 1+ goals

78%

Western Sydney 2+ goals

45%

Western Sydney 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Brisbane Roar FC (draw refunded)

51%

Western Sydney (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brisbane Roar FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.52 · 107 matches

Western Sydney away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.77 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brisbane Roar FC attack 1.30 + Western Sydney defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.54

Western Sydney attack 1.51 + Brisbane Roar FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Brisbane Roar FC scores more

38%

level

24%

Western Sydney scores more

38%

Brisbane Roar FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Brisbane Roar FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff