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Brisbane Roar FC vs Perth Glory FC — A-League 2018

Brisbane Roar FC
Brisbane Roar FC
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 0
Perth Glory FC
Perth Glory FC
1/6/2019A-LeagueA-League · Round 11Suncorp Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Brisbane Roar FC42%
×Draw25%
Perth Glory FC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brisbane Roar FC
1.56
Perth Glory FC
1.38

Brisbane Roar FC creates 13% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 106 away

creates per match

Brisbane Roar FC
1.30
Perth Glory FC
1.23

allows per match

Brisbane Roar FC
1.52
Perth Glory FC
1.83

finishing

Brisbane Roar FC+0.00on par
Perth Glory FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brisbane Roar FC ↓

Perth Glory FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Brisbane Roar FC or draw
66%
Brisbane Roar FC or Perth Glory FC
75%
Draw or Perth Glory FC
58%

Winning margin

Brisbane Roar FC wins by 2+
21%
Perth Glory FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Brisbane Roar FC 1+ goals
79%
Brisbane Roar FC 2+ goals
46%
Brisbane Roar FC 3+ goals
21%
Perth Glory FC 1+ goals
75%
Perth Glory FC 2+ goals
40%
Perth Glory FC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Brisbane Roar FC (draw refunded)
55%
Perth Glory FC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brisbane Roar FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.52 · 107 matches

Perth Glory FC away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.83 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brisbane Roar FC attack 1.30 + Perth Glory FC defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.56

Perth Glory FC attack 1.23 + Brisbane Roar FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Brisbane Roar FC scores more
42%
level
25%
Perth Glory FC scores more
34%

Brisbane Roar FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Brisbane Roar FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brisbane Roar FC vs Perth Glory FC

Perth Glory FC beat Brisbane Roar FC 4-2 in A-League on January 6, 2019.

The match was played at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane.