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Brisbane Roar FC vs Newcastle Jets FC — A-League 2018

Brisbane Roar FC
Brisbane Roar FC
FT
1 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
Newcastle Jets FC
Newcastle Jets FC
4/20/2019A-LeagueA-League · Round 26Suncorp Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Brisbane Roar FC39%
×Draw25%
Newcastle Jets FC37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brisbane Roar FC
1.48
Newcastle Jets FC
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 107 home / 107 away

creates per match

Brisbane Roar FC
1.30
Newcastle Jets FC
1.33

allows per match

Brisbane Roar FC
1.52
Newcastle Jets FC
1.67

finishing

Brisbane Roar FC+0.00on par
Newcastle Jets FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brisbane Roar FC ↓

Newcastle Jets FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Brisbane Roar FC or draw
63%
Brisbane Roar FC or Newcastle Jets FC
75%
Draw or Newcastle Jets FC
61%

Winning margin

Brisbane Roar FC wins by 2+
19%
Newcastle Jets FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Brisbane Roar FC 1+ goals
77%
Brisbane Roar FC 2+ goals
43%
Brisbane Roar FC 3+ goals
19%
Newcastle Jets FC 1+ goals
76%
Newcastle Jets FC 2+ goals
42%
Newcastle Jets FC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Brisbane Roar FC (draw refunded)
51%
Newcastle Jets FC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brisbane Roar FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.52 · 107 matches

Newcastle Jets FC away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brisbane Roar FC attack 1.30 + Newcastle Jets FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.48

Newcastle Jets FC attack 1.33 + Brisbane Roar FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Brisbane Roar FC scores more
39%
level
25%
Newcastle Jets FC scores more
37%

Brisbane Roar FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Brisbane Roar FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

A-League: Brisbane Roar FC 1–6 Newcastle Jets FC

Newcastle Jets FC beat Brisbane Roar FC 6-1 in A-League on April 20, 2019.

The match was played at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane.