Brisbane Roar FC 1–1 Central Coast Mariners FC

Brisbane Roar FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Central Coast Mariners FC

10/21/2018

A-League · Round 1Suncorp Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Brisbane Roar FC38%

×Draw25%

Central Coast Mariners FC37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brisbane Roar FCExpected goals in this matchCentral Coast Mariners FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.47

Brisbane Roar FC

1.48

Central Coast Mariners FC

1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 107 home / 109 away

1.30

creates per match

1.42

1.52

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Brisbane Roar FC

1.30

Central Coast Mariners FC

1.42

allows per match

Brisbane Roar FC

1.52

Central Coast Mariners FC

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brisbane Roar FC+0.00on par

Central Coast Mariners FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brisbane Roar FC ↓

Central Coast Mariners FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Brisbane Roar FC or draw

63%

Brisbane Roar FC or Central Coast Mariners FC

75%

Draw or Central Coast Mariners FC

62%

Winning margin

Brisbane Roar FC wins by 2+

18%

Central Coast Mariners FC wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Brisbane Roar FC 1+ goals

77%

Brisbane Roar FC 2+ goals

43%

Brisbane Roar FC 3+ goals

19%

Central Coast Mariners FC 1+ goals

77%

Central Coast Mariners FC 2+ goals

43%

Central Coast Mariners FC 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Brisbane Roar FC (draw refunded)

50%

Central Coast Mariners FC (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brisbane Roar FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.52 · 107 matches

Central Coast Mariners FC away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.65 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brisbane Roar FC attack 1.30 + Central Coast Mariners FC defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.48

Central Coast Mariners FC attack 1.42 + Brisbane Roar FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Brisbane Roar FC scores more

38%

level

25%

Central Coast Mariners FC scores more

37%

Brisbane Roar FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Brisbane Roar FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff