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Brinkumer SV vs Aumund-Vegesack — League #749 2026

Brinkumer SV
Brinkumer SV
FT
1 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
Aumund-Vegesack
Aumund-Vegesack
5/14/2023League #749League #749 · Bremen - 30BSV-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Brinkumer SV33%
×Draw20%
Aumund-Vegesack47%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brinkumer SV
1.92
Aumund-Vegesack
2.32

Aumund-Vegesack creates 21% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

creates per match

Brinkumer SV
1.40
Aumund-Vegesack
2.14

allows per match

Brinkumer SV
2.50
Aumund-Vegesack
2.43

finishing

Brinkumer SV+0.00on par
Aumund-Vegesack+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brinkumer SV ↓

Aumund-Vegesack →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Brinkumer SV or draw
53%
Brinkumer SV or Aumund-Vegesack
80%
Draw or Aumund-Vegesack
67%

Winning margin

Brinkumer SV wins by 2+
17%
Aumund-Vegesack wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Brinkumer SV 1+ goals
85%
Brinkumer SV 2+ goals
57%
Brinkumer SV 3+ goals
30%
Aumund-Vegesack 1+ goals
90%
Aumund-Vegesack 2+ goals
67%
Aumund-Vegesack 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Brinkumer SV (draw refunded)
41%
Aumund-Vegesack (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brinkumer SV at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.50 · 10 matches

Aumund-Vegesack away — creates 2.14, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brinkumer SV attack 1.40 + Aumund-Vegesack defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.92

Aumund-Vegesack attack 2.14 + Brinkumer SV defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Brinkumer SV scores more
33%
level
20%
Aumund-Vegesack scores more
47%

Aumund-Vegesack at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Aumund-Vegesack will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #749: Brinkumer SV 1–6 Aumund-Vegesack

Aumund-Vegesack beat Brinkumer SV 6-1 in League #749 on May 14, 2023.

The match was played at BSV-Arena in Stuhr.