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Brikama United vs TMT — GFA League 2020

Brikama United
Brikama United
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
TMT
TMT
2/10/2024GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Brikama United40%
×Draw32%
TMT27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brikama United
1.04
TMT
0.80

Brikama United creates 30% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 45 away

creates per match

Brikama United
1.21
TMT
0.67

allows per match

Brikama United
0.92
TMT
0.87

finishing

Brikama United+0.00on par
TMT+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brikama United ↓

TMT →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Brikama United or draw
73%
Brikama United or TMT
68%
Draw or TMT
60%

Winning margin

Brikama United wins by 2+
16%
TMT wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Brikama United 1+ goals
65%
Brikama United 2+ goals
28%
Brikama United 3+ goals
9%
TMT 1+ goals
55%
TMT 2+ goals
19%
TMT 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Brikama United (draw refunded)
60%
TMT (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brikama United at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.92 · 87 matches

TMT away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.87 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brikama United attack 1.21 + TMT defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.04

TMT attack 0.67 + Brikama United defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Brikama United scores more
40%
level
32%
TMT scores more
27%

Brikama United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Brikama United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GFA League: Brikama United 1–1 TMT

Brikama United and TMT drew 1-1 in GFA League on February 10, 2024.