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Brikama United vs Greater Tomorrow — GFA League 2020

Brikama United
Brikama United
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Greater Tomorrow
Greater Tomorrow
1/27/2024GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Brikama United40%
×Draw30%
Greater Tomorrow30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brikama United
1.11
Greater Tomorrow
0.93

Brikama United creates 19% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 59 away

creates per match

Brikama United
1.21
Greater Tomorrow
0.93

allows per match

Brikama United
0.92
Greater Tomorrow
1.02

finishing

Brikama United+0.00on par
Greater Tomorrow+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brikama United ↓

Greater Tomorrow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Brikama United or draw
70%
Brikama United or Greater Tomorrow
70%
Draw or Greater Tomorrow
60%

Winning margin

Brikama United wins by 2+
16%
Greater Tomorrow wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Brikama United 1+ goals
67%
Brikama United 2+ goals
30%
Brikama United 3+ goals
10%
Greater Tomorrow 1+ goals
61%
Greater Tomorrow 2+ goals
24%
Greater Tomorrow 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Brikama United (draw refunded)
57%
Greater Tomorrow (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brikama United at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.92 · 87 matches

Greater Tomorrow away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.02 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brikama United attack 1.21 + Greater Tomorrow defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.11

Greater Tomorrow attack 0.93 + Brikama United defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Brikama United scores more
40%
level
30%
Greater Tomorrow scores more
30%

Brikama United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Brikama United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GFA League: Brikama United 1–3 Greater Tomorrow

Greater Tomorrow beat Brikama United 3-1 in GFA League on January 27, 2024.