Brighton W 1–4 Manchester City W: Result & Stats

Brighton W

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Manchester City W

3/17/2024

FA WSL · Round 16Broadfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Brighton W18%

×Draw20%

Manchester City W62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brighton WExpected goals in this matchManchester City W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

2.13

Brighton W

1.04

Manchester City W

2.13

Manchester City W creates 105% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 83 away

1.16

creates per match

2.31

1.94

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Brighton W

1.16

Manchester City W

2.31

allows per match

Brighton W

1.94

Manchester City W

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brighton W+0.00on par

Manchester City W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brighton W ↓

Manchester City W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Brighton W or draw

38%

Brighton W or Manchester City W

80%

Draw or Manchester City W

82%

Winning margin

Brighton W wins by 2+

6%

Manchester City W wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Brighton W 1+ goals

65%

Brighton W 2+ goals

28%

Brighton W 3+ goals

9%

Manchester City W 1+ goals

88%

Manchester City W 2+ goals

63%

Manchester City W 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Brighton W (draw refunded)

22%

Manchester City W (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brighton W at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.94 · 85 matches

Manchester City W away — creates 2.31, concedes 0.93 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brighton W attack 1.16 + Manchester City W defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.04

Manchester City W attack 2.31 + Brighton W defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Brighton W scores more

18%

level

20%

Manchester City W scores more

62%

Manchester City W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Manchester City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff