Brighton 0–1 Crystal Palace: Result & Stats

Brighton

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Crystal Palace

J. Ayew 70'

2/29/2020

Premier League · Round 28The American Express Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Brighton43%

×Draw26%

Crystal Palace31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrightonExpected goals in this matchCrystal Palace

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.17

Brighton

1.42

Crystal Palace

1.17

Brighton creates 21% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 35 away

1.57

creates per match

1.21

1.13

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Brighton

1.57

Crystal Palace

1.21

allows per match

Brighton

1.13

Crystal Palace

1.26

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Brighton+0.10scores more

Crystal Palace-0.12scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brighton ↓

Crystal Palace →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Brighton or draw

69%

Brighton or Crystal Palace

74%

Draw or Crystal Palace

57%

Winning margin

Brighton wins by 2+

20%

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Brighton 1+ goals

76%

Brighton 2+ goals

41%

Brighton 3+ goals

17%

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

69%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

33%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Brighton (draw refunded)

58%

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brighton at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.13 · 24 matches

Crystal Palace away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.26 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brighton attack 1.57 + Crystal Palace defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.42

Crystal Palace attack 1.21 + Brighton defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Brighton scores more

43%

level

26%

Crystal Palace scores more

31%

Brighton at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Brighton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

Guaita

Crystal Palace · G

8.6

Match Events

27'

Ezequiel Schelotto

33'

Christian Benteke

46'

J. Riedewald← J. McCarthy

57'

Martín Montoya

66'

G. Murray← S. March

70'

J. Ayew↳ C. Benteke

78'

A. Jahanbakhsh← Martín Montoya

82'

S. Alzate← Y. Bissouma

87'

C. Tosun← C. Benteke

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrightonCrystal

Overview

66%Possession34%

23Total Shots12

8Corners7

8Fouls9

Shots

23Total Shots12

8On Target3

9Off Target6

6Blocked3

13Inside Box11

10Outside Box1

Passing

66%Possession34%

538Total Passes273

444Accurate Passes187

83%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves8

Discipline

8Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3