Brighton 1–3 Chelsea: Result & Stats

Brighton

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Chelsea

L. Trossard 54'

K. Zouma 66'

R. James 56'

Jorginho 23' (pen)

9/14/2020

Premier League · Round 1The American Express Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Brighton42%

×Draw25%

Chelsea33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrightonExpected goals in this matchChelsea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.31

Brighton

1.53

Chelsea

1.31

Brighton creates 17% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 35 away

1.57

creates per match

1.49

1.13

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Brighton

1.57

Chelsea

1.49

allows per match

Brighton

1.13

Chelsea

1.49

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Brighton+0.10scores more

Chelsea-0.06on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brighton ↓

Chelsea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Brighton or draw

67%

Brighton or Chelsea

75%

Draw or Chelsea

58%

Winning margin

Brighton wins by 2+

21%

Chelsea wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Brighton 1+ goals

78%

Brighton 2+ goals

45%

Brighton 3+ goals

20%

Chelsea 1+ goals

73%

Chelsea 2+ goals

38%

Chelsea 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Brighton (draw refunded)

57%

Chelsea (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brighton at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.13 · 24 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.49 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brighton attack 1.57 + Chelsea defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.53

Chelsea attack 1.49 + Brighton defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Brighton scores more

42%

level

25%

Chelsea scores more

33%

Brighton at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Brighton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

R. James

Chelsea · D

8.3

Match Events

23'

JorginhoPenalty

45'

A. Connolly← A. Lallana

54'

L. Trossard↳ T. Lamptey

56'

R. James↳ Jorginho

61'

R. Barkley← R. Loftus-Cheek

66'

K. Zouma↳ R. James

79'

A. Jahanbakhsh← S. Alzate

79'

P. Groß← B. White

80'

C. Hudson-Odoi← K. Havertz

81'

Tariq Lamptey

85'

Azpilicueta← Jorginho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrightonChelsea

Overview

52%Possession48%

13Total Shots10

4Corners3

8Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots10

3On Target5

6Off Target2

4Blocked3

7Inside Box7

6Outside Box3

Passing

52%Possession48%

507Total Passes465

414Accurate Passes387

82%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls13

1Yellow Cards0

0Offsides3