Brighton 1–2 Chelsea: Result & Stats

Brighton

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Chelsea

S. March 66'

E. Hazard 33'

Pedro 17'

12/16/2018

Premier League · Round 17American Express Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Brighton43%

×Draw25%

Chelsea32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrightonExpected goals in this matchChelsea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.29

Brighton

1.52

Chelsea

1.29

Brighton creates 18% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 36 away

1.57

creates per match

1.45

1.13

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Brighton

1.57

Chelsea

1.45

allows per match

Brighton

1.13

Chelsea

1.48

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Brighton+0.10scores more

Chelsea-0.01on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brighton ↓

Chelsea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Brighton or draw

68%

Brighton or Chelsea

75%

Draw or Chelsea

57%

Winning margin

Brighton wins by 2+

21%

Chelsea wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Brighton 1+ goals

78%

Brighton 2+ goals

45%

Brighton 3+ goals

20%

Chelsea 1+ goals

72%

Chelsea 2+ goals

37%

Chelsea 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Brighton (draw refunded)

57%

Chelsea (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brighton at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.13 · 24 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.48 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brighton attack 1.57 + Chelsea defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.52

Chelsea attack 1.45 + Brighton defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Brighton scores more

43%

level

25%

Chelsea scores more

32%

Brighton at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Brighton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

E. Hazard

Chelsea · F

7.9

Match Events

17'

Pedro↳ E. Hazard

33'

E. Hazard↳ Willian

55'

Lewis Dunk

60'

F. Andone← G. Murray

66'

R. Loftus-Cheek← Pedro

66'

S. March↳ Bernardo

69'

Florin Andone

75'

R. Barkley← M. Kovačić

81'

Y. Bissouma← P. Groß

83'

J. Locadia← A. Knockaert

83'

O. Giroud← E. Hazard

87'

Marcos Alonso

90'

Kepa Arrizabalaga

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrightonChelsea

Overview

41%Possession59%

6Total Shots10

4Corners1

14Fouls6

Shots

6Total Shots10

2On Target3

3Off Target4

1Blocked3

3Inside Box5

3Outside Box5

Passing

41%Possession59%

455Total Passes654

363Accurate Passes573

80%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls6

2Yellow Cards2

5Offsides4