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Bright Stars vs Mbarara City — Premier League 2019

Bright Stars
Bright Stars
FT
3 – 1
Mbarara City
Mbarara City
5/11/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Kavumba Recreation Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Bright Stars50%
×Draw28%
Mbarara City23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bright Stars
1.37
Mbarara City
0.83

Bright Stars creates 65% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 86 away

creates per match

Bright Stars
1.14
Mbarara City
0.72

allows per match

Bright Stars
0.95
Mbarara City
1.60

finishing

Bright Stars+0.00on par
Mbarara City+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bright Stars ↓

Mbarara City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bright Stars or draw
77%
Bright Stars or Mbarara City
72%
Draw or Mbarara City
50%

Winning margin

Bright Stars wins by 2+
24%
Mbarara City wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bright Stars 1+ goals
75%
Bright Stars 2+ goals
40%
Bright Stars 3+ goals
16%
Mbarara City 1+ goals
56%
Mbarara City 2+ goals
20%
Mbarara City 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bright Stars (draw refunded)
69%
Mbarara City (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bright Stars at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.95 · 86 matches

Mbarara City away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.60 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bright Stars attack 1.14 + Mbarara City defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.37

Mbarara City attack 0.72 + Bright Stars defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bright Stars scores more
50%
level
28%
Mbarara City scores more
23%

Bright Stars at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bright Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Bright Stars 3–1 Mbarara City

Bright Stars beat Mbarara City 3-1 in Premier League on May 11, 2021.

The match was played at Kavumba Recreation Center in Kayunga.