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Brežice vs Slovan Ljubljana — 2. SNL 2019

Brežice
Brežice
Preview
16:00
Slovan Ljubljana
Slovan Ljubljana
4/11/20272. SNL2. SNL · Round 23
43%
Brežice
model favours
43%26%30%

Brežice and Slovan Ljubljana have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Brežice43%
×Draw26%
Slovan Ljubljana30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brežice
1.41
Slovan Ljubljana
1.13

Brežice creates 25% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 30 away

creates per match

Brežice
1.21
Slovan Ljubljana
1.00

allows per match

Brežice
1.26
Slovan Ljubljana
1.60

finishing

Brežice+0.00on par
Slovan Ljubljana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 53Over: 4753%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 51No: 4951%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brežice ↓

Slovan Ljubljana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Brežice or draw
70%
Brežice or Slovan Ljubljana
74%
Draw or Slovan Ljubljana
57%

Winning margin

Brežice wins by 2+
21%
Slovan Ljubljana wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Brežice 1+ goals
76%
Brežice 2+ goals
41%
Brežice 3+ goals
17%
Slovan Ljubljana 1+ goals
68%
Slovan Ljubljana 2+ goals
31%
Slovan Ljubljana 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Brežice (draw refunded)
59%
Slovan Ljubljana (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brežice at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

Slovan Ljubljana away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brežice attack 1.21 + Slovan Ljubljana defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.41

Slovan Ljubljana attack 1.00 + Brežice defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Brežice scores more
43%
level
26%
Slovan Ljubljana scores more
30%

Brežice at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Brežice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Brežice
LWWWD
Ljubljana
LWLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brežice vs Slovan Ljubljana — Match Preview

Brežice face Slovan Ljubljana on April 11, 2027 in this 2. SNL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.