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Brescia vs Sudtirol — Serie B 2018

Brescia
Brescia
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sudtirol
Sudtirol
F. Bianchi 65'
E. Ndoj 37'
8/14/2022Serie BSerie B · Round 1Stadio Mario Rigamonti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Brescia43%
×Draw27%
Sudtirol30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brescia
1.38
Sudtirol
1.11

Brescia creates 24% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 78 away

creates per match

Brescia
1.47
Sudtirol
1.08

allows per match

Brescia
1.15
Sudtirol
1.29

finishing

Brescia+0.00on par
Sudtirol+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brescia ↓

Sudtirol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Brescia or draw
70%
Brescia or Sudtirol
73%
Draw or Sudtirol
57%

Winning margin

Brescia wins by 2+
20%
Sudtirol wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Brescia 1+ goals
75%
Brescia 2+ goals
40%
Brescia 3+ goals
16%
Sudtirol 1+ goals
67%
Sudtirol 2+ goals
30%
Sudtirol 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Brescia (draw refunded)
59%
Sudtirol (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brescia at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.15 · 118 matches

Sudtirol away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.29 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brescia attack 1.47 + Sudtirol defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.38

Sudtirol attack 1.08 + Brescia defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Brescia scores more
43%
level
27%
Sudtirol scores more
30%

Brescia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Brescia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
L. LezzeriniBresciaBrescia · G
8.2

Match Events

35'
Giovanni Zaro
37'
E. Ndoj
53'
N. Galazzi← E. Ndoj
59'
Matthieu Huard
62'
J. Łabojko← S. Moreo
62'
M. Mangraviti← M. Huard
65'
F. Bianchi↳ F. Karačić
68'
R. Odogwu← S. Mazzocchi
73'
D. Casiraghi← H. Nicolussi
81'
M. Bertagnoli← D. Bisoli
81'
R. Niemeijer← F. Bianchi
83'
C. Capone← M. Carretta
84'
L. Belardinelli← M. Pompetti

Possession

46%Brescia

Shots

8Brescia

Pass accuracy

49%Brescia

Statistics

BresciaSudtirol
Overview
46%Possession54%
8Total Shots20
4Corners5
17Fouls5
Shots
8Total Shots20
4On Target4
2Off Target8
2Blocked8
4Inside Box11
4Outside Box9
Passing
46%Possession54%
393Total Passes455
306Accurate Passes365
78%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
17Fouls5
1Yellow Cards1
3Offsides2

Match Recap: Brescia vs Sudtirol

Brescia beat Sudtirol 2-0 in Serie B on August 14, 2022.

Goals: E. Ndoj (37'), F. Bianchi (65').

Sudtirol controlled possession (54%) and registered 20 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti in Brescia.