Brescia 1–1 Ascoli: Result & Stats | Serie B

Brescia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Ascoli

A. Donnarumma 32'

M. Cavion 1'

9/26/2020

Serie B · Round 1Stadio Mario Rigamonti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Brescia46%

×Draw26%

Ascoli28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BresciaExpected goals in this matchAscoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.10

Brescia

1.48

Ascoli

1.10

Brescia creates 35% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 119 away

1.48

creates per match

1.04

1.17

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Brescia

1.48

Ascoli

1.04

allows per match

Brescia

1.17

Ascoli

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brescia+0.00on par

Ascoli+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brescia ↓

Ascoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Brescia or draw

72%

Brescia or Ascoli

74%

Draw or Ascoli

54%

Winning margin

Brescia wins by 2+

23%

Ascoli wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Brescia 1+ goals

77%

Brescia 2+ goals

43%

Brescia 3+ goals

19%

Ascoli 1+ goals

67%

Ascoli 2+ goals

30%

Ascoli 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Brescia (draw refunded)

62%

Ascoli (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brescia at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.17 · 117 matches

Ascoli away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.49 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brescia attack 1.48 + Ascoli defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.48

Ascoli attack 1.04 + Brescia defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Brescia scores more

46%

level

26%

Ascoli scores more

28%

Brescia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Brescia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

A. Donnarumma

Brescia · F

7.5

Match Events

1'

M. Cavion↳ Marcel Büchel

32'

A. Donnarumma↳ F. Ayé

55'

Andrea Papetti

58'

M. Mangraviti← A. Donnarumma

59'

Massimiliano Mangraviti

60'

Ricardo Matos← G. Cangiano

62'

L. Morosini← N. Špalek

63'

T. van de Looi← J. Zmrhal

67'

M. Eramo← M. Cavion

67'

D. Petrucci← Marcel Büchel

81'

A. Ghezzi← J. Łabojko

81'

A. Vellios← R. Bajić

81'

S. Padoin← D. Sarzi Puttini

90'

Davide Petrucci

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BresciaAscoli

Overview

54%Possession46%

11Total Shots16

4Corners3

19Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots16

4On Target2

5Off Target9

2Blocked5

6Inside Box6

5Outside Box10

Passing

54%Possession46%

500Total Passes412

416Accurate Passes332

83%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

19Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1

Serie B: Brescia 1–1 Ascoli

Brescia and Ascoli drew 1-1 in Serie B on September 26, 2020.

Goals: M. Cavion (1'), A. Donnarumma (32').

Brescia controlled possession (54%) and registered 11 shots to 16.

The match was played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti in Brescia.

Brescia vs Ascoli — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Brescia 1–1 Ascoli