Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Brescia U19 vs Como U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Brescia U19
Brescia U19
FT
2 – 0
Como U19
Como U19
9/11/2021Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 1Centro Sportivo San Filippo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Brescia U1932%
×Draw24%
Como U1945%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brescia U19
1.39
Como U19
1.70

Como U19 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 73 away

creates per match

Brescia U19
1.45
Como U19
2.08

allows per match

Brescia U19
1.32
Como U19
1.33

finishing

Brescia U19+0.00on par
Como U19+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brescia U19 ↓

Como U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Brescia U19 or draw
55%
Brescia U19 or Como U19
76%
Draw or Como U19
68%

Winning margin

Brescia U19 wins by 2+
14%
Como U19 wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Brescia U19 1+ goals
75%
Brescia U19 2+ goals
40%
Brescia U19 3+ goals
16%
Como U19 1+ goals
82%
Como U19 2+ goals
51%
Como U19 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Brescia U19 (draw refunded)
41%
Como U19 (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brescia U19 at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.32 · 85 matches

Como U19 away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.33 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brescia U19 attack 1.45 + Como U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.39

Como U19 attack 2.08 + Brescia U19 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Brescia U19 scores more
32%
level
24%
Como U19 scores more
45%

Como U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Como U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Brescia U19 2–0 Como U19

Brescia U19 beat Como U19 2-0 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo San Filippo in Brescia.