Brentford 1–2 Wolves: Result & Stats

Brentford

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Wolves

I. Toney 71'

Rúben Neves 78'

João Moutinho 48'

1/22/2022

Premier League · Round 23Brentford Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Brentford54%

×Draw23%

Wolves22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrentfordExpected goals in this matchWolves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.05

Brentford

1.77

Wolves

1.05

Brentford creates 69% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 31 away

1.82

creates per match

0.82

1.29

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Brentford

1.82

Wolves

0.82

allows per match

Brentford

1.29

Wolves

1.72

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

Brentford-0.18scores less

Wolves-0.24scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brentford ↓

Wolves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Brentford or draw

78%

Brentford or Wolves

77%

Draw or Wolves

46%

Winning margin

Brentford wins by 2+

30%

Wolves wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Brentford 1+ goals

83%

Brentford 2+ goals

53%

Brentford 3+ goals

26%

Wolves 1+ goals

65%

Wolves 2+ goals

28%

Wolves 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Brentford (draw refunded)

71%

Wolves (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brentford at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

Wolves away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.72 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brentford attack 1.82 + Wolves defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.77

Wolves attack 0.82 + Brentford defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Brentford scores more

54%

level

23%

Wolves scores more

22%

Brentford at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Brentford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

João Moutinho

Wolves · M

8.7

Match Events

26'

M. Rasmussen← R. Henry

27'

S. Baptiste← M. Jensen

48'

João Moutinho↳ Nélson Semedo

58'

Y. Wissa← M. Rasmussen

60'

Rúben Neves

69'

Toti GomesRed card cancelled

70'

Toti Gomes

71'

I. Toney↳ B. Mbeumo

75'

Pontus Jansson

75'

Adama Traoré← Fábio Silva

78'

Rúben Neves↳ João Moutinho

79'

M. Forss← S. Baptiste

83'

Christian Nørgaard

83'

S. Ghoddos← Sergi Canós

90+1'

José Sá

90+7'

Adama TraoréGoal cancelled

90+3'

Trincão← Daniel Podence

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrentfordWolves

Overview

50%Possession50%

11Total Shots7

6Corners3

6Fouls7

Shots

11Total Shots7

1On Target2

5Off Target3

5Blocked2

7Inside Box3

4Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

455Total Passes477

335Accurate Passes355

74%Pass Accuracy74%

Discipline

6Fouls7

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides4

Premier League: Brentford 1–2 Wolves

Wolves beat Brentford 2-1 in Premier League on January 22, 2022.

Goals: João Moutinho (48'), I. Toney (71'), Rúben Neves (78').

Brentford controlled possession (50%) and registered 11 shots to 7.

The match was played at Brentford Community Stadium in Brentford, Middlesex.

Brentford vs Wolves — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Brentford 1–2 Wolves