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Brentford vs Manchester City — Premier League 2026

Brentford
Brentford
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Manchester City
Manchester City
P. Foden 16'
12/29/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20Brentford Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Brentford38%
×Draw24%
Manchester City38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brentford
1.53
Manchester City
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 33 away

creates per match

Brentford
1.85
Manchester City
1.77

allows per match

Brentford
1.30
Manchester City
1.21

finishing

Brentford-0.23scores less
Manchester City-0.29scores less

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brentford ↓

Manchester City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Brentford or draw
62%
Brentford or Manchester City
76%
Draw or Manchester City
62%

Winning margin

Brentford wins by 2+
18%
Manchester City wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Brentford 1+ goals
78%
Brentford 2+ goals
45%
Brentford 3+ goals
20%
Manchester City 1+ goals
79%
Manchester City 2+ goals
45%
Manchester City 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Brentford (draw refunded)
50%
Manchester City (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brentford at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.30 · 29 matches

Manchester City away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.21 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brentford attack 1.85 + Manchester City defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.53

Manchester City attack 1.77 + Brentford defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Brentford scores more
38%
level
24%
Manchester City scores more
38%

Brentford at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Brentford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
K. De BruyneManchester CityManchester City · M
8.3

Match Events

16'
P. Foden↳ K. De Bruyne
17'
Phil FodenGoal confirmed
69'
Sergi Canós← Y. Wissa
75'
M. Bidstrup← F. Onyeka
82'
S. Ghoddos← D. Thompson
88'
Aymeric LaporteGoal cancelled

Possession

24%Brentford

Shots

6Brentford

Pass accuracy

41%Brentford

Statistics

BrentfordManchester
Overview
24%Possession76%
6Total Shots12
3Corners5
12Fouls10
Shots
6Total Shots12
2On Target3
2Off Target5
2Blocked4
3Inside Box7
3Outside Box5
Passing
24%Possession76%
217Total Passes716
136Accurate Passes634
63%Pass Accuracy89%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls10
0Offsides3

Premier League: Brentford 0–1 Manchester City

Manchester City beat Brentford 1-0 in Premier League on December 29, 2021.

Goals: P. Foden (16').

Manchester City controlled possession (76%) and registered 12 shots to 6.

The match was played at Brentford Community Stadium in Brentford, Middlesex.