Brentford 3–1 Liverpool: Result & Stats

Brentford

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Liverpool

B. Mbeumo 84'

Y. Wissa 42'

I. Konaté 19' (OG)

A. Oxlade-Chamberlain 50'

1/2/2023

Premier League · Round 19Gtech Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Brentford41%

×Draw24%

Liverpool35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrentfordExpected goals in this matchLiverpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.45

Brentford

1.57

Liverpool

1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 32 away

1.82

creates per match

1.61

1.29

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Brentford

1.82

Liverpool

1.61

allows per match

Brentford

1.29

Liverpool

1.32

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Brentford-0.18scores less

Liverpool+0.17scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brentford ↓

Liverpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Brentford or draw

65%

Brentford or Liverpool

76%

Draw or Liverpool

59%

Winning margin

Brentford wins by 2+

20%

Liverpool wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Brentford 1+ goals

79%

Brentford 2+ goals

46%

Brentford 3+ goals

21%

Liverpool 1+ goals

77%

Liverpool 2+ goals

42%

Liverpool 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Brentford (draw refunded)

53%

Liverpool (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brentford at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

Liverpool away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.32 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brentford attack 1.82 + Liverpool defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.57

Liverpool attack 1.61 + Brentford defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Brentford scores more

41%

level

24%

Liverpool scores more

35%

Brentford at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Brentford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

A. Oxlade-Chamberlain

Liverpool · F

7.9

Match Events

2'

Zanka

9'

Harvey Elliott

19'

I. KonatéOwn goal

20'

Ibrahima KonatéGoal confirmed

40'

Yoane WissaGoal cancelled

42'

Y. Wissa↳ M. Jensen

46'

N. Keïta← H. Elliott

46'

J. Matip← V. van Dijk

46'

A. Robertson← K. Tsimikas

48'

Darwin NúñezGoal cancelled

50'

A. Oxlade-Chamberlain↳ T. Alexander-Arnold

57'

Thiago Alcântara

73'

Darwin Núñez

74'

J. Dasilva← M. Jensen

74'

K. Lewis-Potter← Y. Wissa

83'

C. Jones← A. Oxlade-Chamberlain

84'

B. Mbeumo

87'

S. Ghoddos← V. Janelt

88'

Sergi Canós← B. Mbeumo

90+6'

M. Sørensen← R. Henry

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrentfordLiverpool

Overview

27%Possession73%

10Total Shots16

4Corners9

5Fouls8

Shots

10Total Shots16

7On Target6

2Off Target3

1Blocked7

9Inside Box12

1Outside Box4

Passing

27%Possession73%

237Total Passes652

118Accurate Passes543

50%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

5Fouls8

1Yellow Cards3

7Offsides4