Brentford 1–1 Crystal Palace: Result & Stats

Brentford

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Crystal Palace

V. Janelt 90+6'

E. Eze 69'

2/18/2023

Premier League · Round 24Gtech Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Brentford46%

×Draw24%

Crystal Palace29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrentfordExpected goals in this matchCrystal Palace

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.25

Brentford

1.64

Crystal Palace

1.25

Brentford creates 31% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 29 away

2.00

creates per match

1.21

1.28

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Brentford

2.00

Crystal Palace

1.21

allows per match

Brentford

1.28

Crystal Palace

1.28

-0.30scores less than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Brentford-0.30scores less

Crystal Palace-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brentford ↓

Crystal Palace →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Brentford or draw

71%

Brentford or Crystal Palace

76%

Draw or Crystal Palace

54%

Winning margin

Brentford wins by 2+

24%

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Brentford 1+ goals

81%

Brentford 2+ goals

49%

Brentford 3+ goals

23%

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

71%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

36%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Brentford (draw refunded)

61%

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brentford at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.28 · 23 matches

Crystal Palace away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.28 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brentford attack 2.00 + Crystal Palace defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.64

Crystal Palace attack 1.21 + Brentford defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Brentford scores more

46%

level

24%

Crystal Palace scores more

29%

Brentford at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Brentford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

V. Janelt

Brentford · M

7.7

Match Events

3'

Ben Mee

13'

Jordan Ayew

35'

Joachim Andersen

63'

M. Damsgaard← J. Dasilva

63'

K. Schade← Y. Wissa

63'

E. Eze← A. Lokonga

69'

E. Eze↳ M. Olise

75'

Christian Nørgaard

76'

V. Janelt← R. Henry

76'

K. Lewis-Potter← A. Hickey

80'

O. Édouard← J. Mateta

80'

N. Ahamada← M. Olise

82'

C. Richards← T. Mitchell

83'

S. Baptiste← C. Nørgaard

90+6'

V. Janelt↳ B. Mbeumo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrentfordCrystal

Overview

59%Possession41%

12Total Shots10

0.89Expected Goals (xG)1.09

2Corners6

10Fouls8

Shots

12Total Shots10

5On Target4

6Off Target3

1Blocked3

7Inside Box8

5Outside Box2

Passing

59%Possession41%

517Total Passes360

426Accurate Passes280

82%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls8

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2

Match Recap: Brentford vs Crystal Palace

Brentford and Crystal Palace drew 1-1 in Premier League on February 18, 2023.

Goals: E. Eze (69'), V. Janelt (90+6').

Brentford controlled possession (59%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Gtech Community Stadium in Brentford, Middlesex.

Brentford vs Crystal Palace — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Brentford vs Crystal Palace